Forbes Article: It’s 1994 in Cryptocurrency

Comparing Cryptocurrency in 2017 to Tech in 1994:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/apaul/2017/11/27/its-1994-in-cryptocurrency/

 

Posted in Cryptocurrency | 6 Comments

Cryptocurrency And The History of Money

I helped Alliance Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Gaurav Jangale write the note below for their clients.

AB_CryptoFinance Insights_Is Bitcoin money

Posted in Cryptocurrency | 7 Comments

Disclaimers and disclosures

Last updated 03/07/2018

Twitter is a challenging medium for a manager of an investment firm, since the character limit makes standard disclaimers impossible.  A suggestion that I took to heart, was to include a link to such disclaimers and disclosures in my twitter bio.  Relevant information will remain on this page, updated as appropriate, however all content is subject to change without notice.

I’m the CIO of BlockTower Capital.  We invest in and actively trade many cryptocurrencies.  We have the ability to take both long and short positions, and fairly frequently enter and exit positions.  Anything that I write about crypotocurrency represents a potential conflict of interest given my role as the manager of a cryptocurrency portfolio. The information included on Twitter or other public mediums is for general information purposes only.  Nothing that I write should be construed as, or relied upon as, investment, financial, legal, regulatory, accounting, tax or similar advice.  Nothing should be construed as a solicitation to invest in any security, future, or other financial product, and nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. You should consult your own investment, legal, tax and/or similar professionals regarding your specific situation and any specific decisions.

An investment in any strategy involves a high degree of risk.  There is the possibility of loss and all investment involves risk including the loss of principal.  Any projections, forecasts and estimates are necessarily speculative in nature.  Matters they describe are subject to known (and unknown) risks, uncertainties and other unpredictable factors, many of which are beyond my knowledge or control.  Any data, calculations, or qualitative statements about the present or past may be erroneous. No representations or warranties are made as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any statements.  All information is provided “as is”, without any warranty of any kind.  All statements are my personal opinion, unless otherwise specified.

Posted in Cryptocurrency | 18 Comments

Don’t ignore the competition

Cryptocurrency investors usually only look at the investable landscape.  They ignore those projects that are hard (or impossible) to invest in.  This is a big mistake when considering an investment in a competitive industry.

++ When I talk to cryptocurrency investors, they often defend an investment by saying, “great team, great technology, real use case.”  I then ask, “who are their competitors and why do you think that this team will be the winner?”  Usually…silence.  Sometimes, the person will respond by naming other competitors with an exchange listed cryptocurrency or an upcoming ICO.  Never do they respond with competitors that have no cryptocurrency.

++ Consider Ripple (XRP).  XRP has numerous competitors with no tradeable cryptocurrency like R3 and Digital Assets Group.  To decide if XRP is a good buy, you have to look at the competitive landscape and decide why you think XRP is likely to beat out the competition.

++ Civic (CVC) is another example.  Great project, great team, but they have at least a dozen serious competitors, some of which may have greater traction.  CVC may be a great bet on the blockchain identity use case, but we can only conclude that after comparing Civic to its long list of competitors.

++ It’s important to remember that most cryptocurrency is open source, and so the value is based primarily on network effects.  When looking at new projects that don’t yet have meaningful network effects, we’re mostly betting on the team’s ability to quickly establish a first mover advantage in a particular use case.  Making that call requires evaluating the level of traction the competition has achieved.

Posted in Cryptocurrency | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments